Not too mention my reading comprehension skills fall apart in ORGs and i just found out about the winning shogun twist...

SMH

BUT

Brad might actually want to flip and maybe isn't just crazy so that would be neat

Ok, update, now that I have had some time to process:

First, you have

Me
Kat
Gerv
Reynold
Sydney

and the 5 of us are all pretty tight, or at least, the other 4 are all pretty tight with me and I don't think have any intentions of turning on us. Which means that we can hopefully get one of the other 5 to flip. Or rather, we sort of have to because of this shogun twist that is a real b*tch. So let's take a look at what I THINK I know about the other 5. NOW BEFORE I DO THAT, let me say that 99% of this information is from Brad, who is CRAZY and came on to me and Kat HARD about wanting to "flip" to the Coast-ers. Which, I am obviously all for, but it was very abrupt, I wasn't sure what to think. But he's been so detailed and specific that I really think I should believe him. Even if he IS delusional and paranoid about being on the outs with his old tribe. Whether there's a big ole Sakai majority that doesn't include him or not, he's a number that would make things 6-4, plus a potential shogun vote. Anyways:

Brad: Supposedly on the outs with the Mountain ppl. Supposedly wants to work with us, especially me and Kat who have talked to him the most

Michele: supposedly sort of on the outs with the Ki majority alliance. Supposedly a number we could potentially get on our side.

Eliza: Supposedly in pretty tight with the Sakai majority and supposedly is trying to flip a Coast-er. Supposedly Brad said at one point he thought he could flip Eliza but supposedly that isn't gonna be something she is interested in because of her connections with the other Mountain ppl. She likes me a lot. That much is not a supposedly. We get along great. But maybe she's trying to pull me over and would never join me ovah heah. IDK.

James: Supposedly at the heart of the Ki majority. Supposedly might be the holder of a DOUBLE VOTE that Ki pooled their money together to get and sent him over here with. Which would blow. Probably will always be at odds with me. But ok guy, based off our brief chat this morning.

Jefra: Hasn't been around. Supposedly in tight with the Sakai majority? Supposedly going to be hard to work with over here.

So yeah. If Brad is telling the truth and we can get one more of Michele or Eliza or something idk to work with us, that would be swell. But I really don't know what's going to happen AT ALL for this next phase of the game. Everything is up in the air on both tribes. Or at least I hope it is. If things are already set in stone, then that's a bad sign for the 9 people who don't hold as much power in this game as far as I can tell. I just want to win immunity, and from what Dana has told me, the Mountain folks over there are either all busy on a Thursday night or are dragging their feet on planning for this challenge i.e. trying to throw?? So more power to them. And RIP one of my Coast buddies, but Dana is the only one I'm really all thaaaat attached to. But at the end of the day, it would appear Kat and I are already the most valuable to the new 5 people one way or another, and thus, if we end up on the minority, I would hope that our friends Sydney, Reynold, and Gerv (and Brad?) get picked off before us.

EDIT: Alliances according to Brad:

Caleb
Julia
Jefra
Eliza

James
JFP
Spencer
Marisa

On the outs:

Brad
Michele
Matty




IN OTHER NEWS

there's this girl

and she's really gr8

and i liked her last year but i was told she wasnt particularly interested but now she is sending signals that she is interested and this is a good thing bc i still would certainly be DTGTKEOB (Down To Get To Know Each Other Better) and so if my activity level dips in the next few weeks, SCREW YOU, IT'S BECAUSE I MAY BE COURTING THE FUTURE LOVE OF MY LIFE. But I'll still win this game and shit. And I would probably be better at ORGs (and life) if my activity level dipped a bit anyways.

AND SHE LIKES SOCIAL JUSTICE AND JESUS AND THE EARTH AND PARTYING IN MODERATION HOW COOL IS THAT?

tell her about ORGs

Host Woo @ 1/4/2016 11:40

tell her about ORGs

I will

after we're married

or after I win an ORG

they're only mildly cool when you're good at them

so yeah, after we're married

i swear u have a different girl u want to get to know every 3rd day. calm ur penis

Scout @ 1/4/2016 12:17

i swear u have a different girl u want to get to know every 3rd day. calm ur penis

no but this semester has been crazy

amount of girls interested in me in the past 6 months > amount of girls interested in me the first 21 years

and how can you tell me what to do with my penis and not expect legislators to tell women what to do with their uterus smh

It's the tie you were wearing in your video confessional.

Also, you're gonna cheat on Kat? How dare you, you sexist pig. I've been defending you in the VL this entire time and now you pull this stunt?

PW Ratalie White @ 1/4/2016 12:33

It's the tie you were wearing in your video confessional. Also, you're gonna cheat on Kat? How dare you, you sexist pig. I've been defending you in the VL this entire time and now you pull this stunt?

Kat and I are just ORG-dating

she has a IRL SO

he's probably not as cool as me

just like Kat, as much as I hate to say it, isn't quite on the level of <3 Emily <3

i think we're gonna win immunity.

I will say, for all my bad luck with being on good initial tribes, I usually get swapped onto a very good tribe

In fact, if we do win today, I will move to 8-2 all-time on post-swap tribal challenges. And that's pretty cool. Because I don't wanna have to figure out what to do this soon after meeting these clowns.

Plan I just came up with:

I get along great with Eliza. I also get along kind of ok with Jefra. And brad already wants to "flip". I have hardly talked to James. Michele may or may not be a real person, i have no indication one way or another.

SO. Sakai has not lost a member. I go to the Sakai's on my tribe and say, "hey, Ki is gonna wanna target you eventually and I have heard from everyone and their mother that there are double votes floating around. If we go to tribal, why not avoid potential deadlock or blowing the double votes and instead side with the old Coast-ers and take out James? eh? eh?"

This might require admitting Brad is already on our side, and that the other guys would need the double vote to get the advantage. But hey, if it makes something happen long-term, awesome. I think Eliza and I have developed enough of a relationship that we really want to find a scenario in which we can work together, so maybe this can be that scenario. Gonna keep this plan in the noggin until we lose immunity though. Which I have a good feeling won't happen often.

EDIT: since our 6-person majority could afford to lose a member and still have a 5-5 tie assuming the shogun is ki/sakai-friendly, I might consider throwing Sydney under the bus for a vote and then Jefra and eliza flip after that. Who tf knows, I don't usually try bold maneuvers like this, I normally just ride with the numbers. So much risk. I am not an ORG risk-taker. i am an ORG risk-preventer, but the risk has already presented itself to me.

ORG 101:

If you are going to talk to someone, talk to them a lot and be very good at it or else they think you are active but not someone they value enough to keep around


Examples of how Butch is accomplishing this:


People I have talked to a fair amount that seem to like me:

Kat, Gerv, Reynold, Dana, Debbie, Sugar, Eliza, Jefra, Sydney


People I have talked to 0 or 1 times ever:

James, Michele, Caleb, Julia, JFP, Spencer, Marisa, Matty


Everyone else (i.e. people i need to make like me)

Brad and Sash, only Sash doesn't seem to be that good at ORGs just yet and i would be surprised if he and i are both around the next time we have a chance to link up again, so just Brad



Is the second list too long? Maybe. But do I want the 6 former Mountain people or the last 2 people on my current tribe that I would work with thinking I am a super-active, super-friendly and potentially well-connected player in case they have the numbers and I don't? No, no I don't. So I definitely feel like I am hustling my ass off socially this game, and, through some combination of this cast being really fun and easy to talk to and me just KILLING IT socially in this particular game, I think I might be in an ok spot considering I am one of 9 people who arguably got swap-f*cked just because they lost one more challenge than the other guys and didn't get to strategically place all their double-votes so they could run both tribes. But thanks to Jefra saying things today that maybe possibly imply she would reach across the aisle...we could be in good shape! We could be in very good shape. But hell, Final 20 shouldn't entail so much work! If I make it to the merge, I will be 20x more proud of this effort than my merge-making effort in Rustic or Decades. This game has been brutal.

WOW. Yet another WTF twist in the early goings, but I am not complaining, as the lack of a shogun from the Sakai tribe (likely to continue to be someone who does not have my best interests at heart) can only benefit us as we go to tribal. Hopefully, some combination of Brad, Eliza, and Jefra will vote with our gang of 5 and give us an easy majority, putting me safely into the Final 17.

And I don't think I'll be winning immunity. As I am not sure I will be attempting immunity. As my car got ran into (i am fine, i was blameless, etc etc etc) this evening and I will likely be spending tomorrow afternoon managing that situation. I might give it a shot so I can sleep at night and not look like I'm taking my coveted F19 spot for granted or anything, but I seriously doubt this is the type of challenge I would win anyways.

Also, I feel like I'm not as shocked about Sugar leaving as most people from the coast were. But oh man, she seemed very confident it would be Dana or Sash or maybe Debbie, poor girl. I guess people thought she had an idol. Well people better not think I have an idol because I sure as hell don't, I don't think any of the Asos have SHIT!

Alliance Map

Me-Kat-Gerv-Reynold-Sydney
Me-Kat/Me-Gerv/Me-Reynold/Me-Sydney/Me-Dana/Me-Debbie
Me-Gerv-Debbie-Reynold
The Coast, afaik

?James-Spencer-JFP-Marisa?
?Caleb-Julia-Jefra-Eliza?
The Mountain?

And hopefully someday:
Me-Gerv-Reynold-Jefra-Eliza-Brad?=Kat?-Sydney?

ta-ta, viewers, i hope i am doing you proud

OH SHIT OH SHIT OH SHIT OPERATION "SWING JEFRA, ELIZA, AND BRAD" IS A GO

Which basically just means

I talked to Jefra about an "Aso-Sakai" alliance over here on NuKi. Lemme post the screencaps:






So she could be lying to me? But we could also have just worked out something awesome? I guess we'll find out tomorrow?

Gerv and Reynold and I, and to a lesser extent, Sydney, have been working together on this plan, and I think we're gonna come at Eliza and Brad as a unit. We'll see what happens!

But it looks right now like if this blows up in our face, I could very easily take the flak and come across as some kind of ringleader for even coming to jefra with this idea and boom, I get 18th.









...or 17th if I'm lucky...

To throw or not to throw? That is the question...


...that both tribes are asking themselves. Although Sakai may not be asking itself, they may have already made up their minds to throw til the swap. From what it sounds like, the Sakai's especially Caleb and Julia and Spencer, are really cocky and I do not like them. Even though I have never spoken to them.

Gee whillighers, Spencer, James, and JFP all messaged me within 3 hours of one another. Total conversations I have had with the three of them put together? 1

And oh wait a second, Spencer, James, and JFP are the core members of the Original Ki tribe, gee whillighers indeed!

I think something might be up!

Just maybe!

Maybe possibly!

I asked Sean Kenniff and he said "yeah, i think something might be up!"

That's when you know that something might be up

SUDDENLY IT LOOKS LIKE Aso MAY BE THE PRETTIEST GIRL AT THE DANCE