Final 14: Jonny is Joining the Jury... Phase

I am positively BEAMING right now. Like, there was this nagging doubt in the back of my mind throughout the entire game - somehow, someway, I’m gonna head out prejury, once again. ESPECIALLY when I’m evoking the spirit of Frank by playing as his go to alias - that’s really just tempting fate, y’know?

But, I did it. I’m gonna at the very least serve on the jury. And like, honestly, knowing that that’s there - I feel a lot more inclined to play fast and loose. If I need to, anyway. The worst that could happen has passed, so that fear won’t weigh me down anymore. Honestly I think that’s why the merge vote is generally so chaotic - everyone’s ready to amp up their aggressive game tenfold.

Eliza seems to think we’re not merging - she said something along the lines that Chelsea seemed to hint that wasn’t the case or something. And, y’know, that’s entirely possible - Twisted hasn’t shied away from having pre-merge jurors. Having said that, I think merging at 13, given the current tribe setup we’re in, would make the most sense - keeping us in groups of five for an extended period, in my opinion, reduces the games overall volatility, especially w/ how tribes like mine shook out, where there’s a seemingly clear pecking order.

That’s the mindset I’m gonna work under, anyway. And figuring out exactly how to navigate a presumed 13 person merge is tricky, especially if your accounting for the worst possible scenario for this round i.e. James leaving.

As it stands, we’re at 6 Sakai, 4 Ki, 3 Ozato, and 1 Aso. Although the factions aren’t necessarily divided tribally - it’s basically a bunch of groups that together make for one giant clusterfuck.

As it stands, from MY perspective, it’s:

Original Ki: Me/Marisa/Spencer/James

Original Sakai: Eliza/Jefra/Julia/Caleb/Matty (Minus Brad, who’s basically defected)

Ozato Girls: Dana, Kat, Sydney

Nu Sakai 6: Me/Marisa/Spencer/Julia/Caleb/Matty (Jefra maybe hovering near the edge?)

Eliza’s Crew: Eliza, Jefra, Kat, Sydney, Dana? (Nu Ki extended to Nu Ozato)

La Resistance Remnants: Gervase, Brad

These are the major factions, at least from my perspective. Assuming one of Brad or Gervase goes this round - which is a bit of a leap, since while Dana does have some trust in me, that might not be to Ki as a whole - there’s a DECENT chance everyone else gangs up on whoever's left, just to equalize the numbers a bit and have a consensus.

What gets interesting is if that DOESN’T happen, or if it does and we’re at the Final 12. There’s a few ways it could break, there. Original Ki could team up with Original Sakai to eliminate the remaining three Ozato’s - but if we try to approach it this way, there’s a chance Eliza’s connections will flip the vote, and Sakai and Ozato will team up against Ki. If NuSakai attempts to mount an offense, that basically leaves Eliza’s Crew on the outs - provided Julia, Caleb, and Matty are loyal to that. Finally, Original Ki and Ozato could team up, but again - would they be willing to take out Eliza or Jefra? Furthermore, would it be smart to take out Julia and Caleb if they ARE principally loyal to Nu Sakai as opposed to original Sakai?

I think a big part of this merge is gonna be how fractured Sakai is. If they’re super fractured, it’ll basically be divide and conquer for Ki, whichever way we feel more comfortable. If they’re not, Ki and Ozato NEED to make a power move together against them.

The thing is, I actually do think we’re in a swing spot - I’m just not sure to what EXTENT it is. My relationships with Ozato, more or less, are pretty strong - Kat is charismatic but I do think she trusts me because of what went down with Dana. Dana I think trusts me more than most of the people in the game. I personally don’t gel well with Sydney, but we do talk a good amount and I’m putting in the work there.

However, MY relationship is not Ki’s relationship. Spencer is lackadaisical with those relationships, which is a bit frustrating because it’s lazy to assume we’ll always have Sakai. And he realizes that, but it feels like it’s not bearing much fruit, at least from my perspective - maybe he’s chatting with them more than I realize, but Kat is asking me questions about him and I’m like “goddamit Spence, TALK TO HER.”

Marisa and James, however, are both super quiet, and while I adore them, when we’re trying to position ourselves and court suitors - yeah, you can’t behind one or two people. James’ relationship with Kat and Syd is at least decent since they were on Nu Ki together, but zero clue about Dana, which COULD get him booted this round. I don’t think Marisa talks to any of them, either.

Spencer is the one I principally talk strategy with - with Marisa its more casual stuff and occasional surface level stuff we NEED to discuss as allies. And I think he realizes the benefit of having Ozato - but personally he’s closer with Sakai, or more specifically Julia and Caleb. I think we’re SORTA on the same page, but nailing down the specifics is kinda hard. In general all my game talk feels kinda vague - maybe because I am trying to play the middle to some extent, and making concrete deals is less beneficial when I could keep my options open.

It just all feels so muddled. Like Cambodia, everyone has relationships with everyone - choosing a side is tricky when you know there are SOME talks happening on the other side. If I knew the extent of loyalties to certain groups, like what Eliza had going on at NuKi, this would be easier. But, like 99% of the game, I just gotta keep chatting and gathering information and feeling people out.

This is all just sort of where my headspace is at the moment. It probably doesn’t flow super well or anything BUT that makes sense, since my game thoughts are SO ALL OVER THE GODDAMN PLACE. Fairplay out, peace.

Final 13: You Are What You Eat, and Dragons Eat Goats

OK, so I haven’t confessed yet this round and like...yeah, there’s a lot to talk about. I figured I’d wait until things had died down, the mutinies were settled, challenge posts were made, yada yada yada. I’m typing this at like four in the morning and there are STILL people awake for some ungodly reason (I will conveniently chose to ignore myself here) but it’s died down enough that I feel somewhat comfortable talking about stuff.

So, I was wrong.



I know Mr. Downey, crazy talk. But I was - even a broken clock is wrong twice a day...that expression is actually probably wrong, but I’m tired enough that I don’t care.

REGARDLESS, we didn’t merge, which honestly surprised me. In Blood vs. Water we had premerge jurors (mostly to rub salt in my wounds I’m sure) so it’s not like, OUTLANDISH to me - but eleven seems so late for a merge. Like, the crazy stuff in Twisted typically happens post-merge, at least if memory serves, and in particular given this pretty straightforward pre-merge, 13 seemed most likely.

But that’s not the case, which is honestly probably good for my game. I’m in a secure spot in my tribe, and the more the numbers dwindle pre-merge, the easier my power grab will be. Ki is in the swing spot, and I think we’re honestly unique in that position, more or less - so if the other factions are each dwindled a bit, that’s ultimately a net boon for us. It gives us more agency to swing around as we see fit, and ESPECIALLY in a game as fluctuating as Twisted, having options is crucial.

Anyway, once I realized the challenge was on, my mind was like - OK, this won’t be all bad. As long as Ki doesn’t lose, we can trim a few numbers on the Sakai and Ozato sides. Caleb was the likely boot on Ozato, but he has the idol - so he plays it, the idol is flushed, and an Ozato goes. Here, Jefra is the odd woman out - barring an idol play, she’s gonna be gone. This would mean the merge would be 4 Ki, 4 Sakai, 2 Ozato, and a Aso - but Ki is not perceived as powerful or “showy” as Sakai, which gives us more leverage, even with a defected Brad.

However, if Ki DID lose, then James would be toast - which I honestly don’t want. Luckily he was shogun, so I was like, OK - tell James he’s fine if he’s over here, (which he would be) leave Ki to deal with the three person tribal, AND have someone comparatively expendable Jefra can target JUST in case of an idol.

However, and I’m not ENTIRELY sure why - but James thought it’d be smarter to go over to Ozato. And if he didn’t know about Caleb’s idol, I’d get it - but he does, and he knows Caleb would play it. All he’d be doing by going to that Tribal is put himself at risk and keep an idol he doesn’t have control of in the game. Caleb is sporadic as fuck - do we really want him to have an idol going into merge?

Honestly, I think Caleb badgered him. I told him James was considering both options, and Caleb was like “THAT DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE.” Um, no? It makes plenty of sense? James would be secure with us, and you’re shadier than Sonic’s shitty counterpart? Just because it doesn’t help your game doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense Caleb. I know, I know - a shocking revelation.

Now, you might notice that I’m a BIT irritated with Caleb at the moment. Well, that’s pretty simple. AFTER he got his way with the whole James thing (why we are allowing alliance terrorism is beyond me) AND won immunity, he found out from Spencer that Jefra is going at our Tribal Council. Now, Caleb gained a LOT this round - he got safety in his tribe, the ability to keep his idol, a pass to the merge.

But that’s not enough. No, you see this is the Caleb show - if literally ANYTHING doesn’t help Caleb directly, it CANNOT be allowed. So, when he finds out Jefra, someone he’s decently close with, is going to be heading out, what does he do?

HE. FLIPPED. HIS. FUCKING. SHIT. Poor Spencer, honestly. He told Spencer that I had to go, and that he and Marisa NEEDED to flip on me, or else they were losing his loyalty. Spencer was like “uhhhhhhh no?” and apparently it was this whole thing. I’m ecstatic Spencer stood by me, even while I was off napping and doing my own thing.

I only got secondhand info from Marisa, gonna get more details from Spencer when he hops on, but this whole thing INFURIATES me. The entitlement that Caleb has is ridiculous. I like Atohi, I enjoy his presence (particularly as a host or PW, mind you) but he’s being absolutely ridiculous. I have been nothing but pleasant to you - yeah, we’re not the closest in the world, but we’re allies by proxy. Flipping your shit because people won’t turn on your ally of choice, ESPECIALLY me?

I’m done with him. I’ve been considering the options at merge, but if I have it my way? Caleb. Is. Out. He’s not a goat, he’s a dragon. I’m sure Julia and Eliza want to drag him to the end, but here’s the thing - he is fucking dangerous. A goat is someone who passively lets the game come to them, and can’t win as a result. A dragon is someone who tries to control every little thing, and is FREQUENTLY successful, but is equally unlikable and as such also can’t win.

Keeping a dragon around, especially into a merge? Nononononono, he is going ASAP - this has cleared any doubts or reservations I may have had about that. Like I don’t THINK it’s overly reactionary, as much as it might come off - this is something I’ve been thinking about for a while, and it’s just confirmation of thoughts I’ve already had. It doesn’t matter if I can beat someone if I can’t work with them.

Part of me is worried that Caleb will give Jefra his idol as a targeted attack against me, but a bigger part of me is like - no, he’s too selfish to do that. I have no clue what Caleb was saying to Jefra - I was trying to lead her on to thinking it was an activity vote, which would naturally be Marisa, so she wouldn’t be worried and cause a situation similar to this to occur. Now? Who knows. I need to talk to Spencer and get some more of the specifics.

I didn’t really know where to put this in the story, but Julia also was like “I’ll vote Jefra if that’s what we’re doing” and threw her under the bus as soon as she could. I think Julia trusts me a good amount - like, maybe not as much as Spencer, but I’ve been REALLY working her over since this swap, and I think it’s paying off a bit. She made a four person chat, which was probably mostly a desperation move, but there is a hint of truth there - I do think she wants to work with Spencer and I especially at merge.

Her and Marisa used to talk a bunch, but Marisa’s activity has died down because of her back issues - I think she might have been Julia’s preference, if she had her way. No clue for sure though, maybe she’s misting me hard. If Jefra did get an idol on her trip, or Caleb sends one over to her - I’d hope she’d be able to direct the target off of me. I don’t want Marisa gone AT ALL, but I’d be surprised if she voted Spencer, so that’d be my only chance at survival in that scenario.

Speaking of which, I reconfirmed with Marisa tonight. I told her it’s us to the end if I have it my way, and we shot the shit for a while. Fun times - when she’s around, Marisa’s always a joy to talk to. I’m glad we were able to hit it off so early, and I’d be SO STOKED to take this partnership to the end. Sure, we don’t have the outright strategic talks I tend to have with Spencer, but they do have a bit of that on top of a lot of personal charm.

Besides that, not a TON happening. Like a lot of my time has been spent talking to the Ozato girls, but it’s mostly small talk with game peppered here and there, except with Dana. She seems to think she’s convinced Gervase to keep her over Brad - I’m not sure if I believe that’s the actual case, but if it is it’s awesome.

If Dana does go to the jury, I do think that’s a vote for me, and someone to speak kindly of me in jury. So it’s really win-win for me - if she stays, I have someone to work with. If she doesn’t, I have a presumed advocate - definitely more than Brad, who I’ve only talked with once this whole friggen game. (Yeah yeah two way street I don’t give a fuck - I’m in the majority, he reaches out to me, haha.)

She also shared some interesting info with me. Apparently, Kat is mad at Sydney and wants her out. Sydney was apparently throwing her under the bus before the challenge ended, forced Kat to vote Reynold, forced a Butch blindside instead of Brad, all of which is irritating her. This could be a calculated ploy by Dana to enforce a sense that Ozato isn’t together - which would be super smart of her, honestly.

If it is true though, it’s actually pretty awesome - Sydney would have no one, would be an easy boot, and I do think (sheerly through my force of will) I’ve managed to talk to her a ton and endear myself to her. She COULD be pissed at me, but since we don’t really have a game relationship as much as a friendly one, I don’t think she’d be super bitter? And regardless, being able to divide and conquer is good for my longevity.

I think that’s most of the pertinent information for the round? I probably shouldn’t be counting jury votes, but let’s be real - my winning prophecy is gonna come true, it’s just a matter of me making it happen. Make it through this vote, make it to merge, win the game. Simple as that.

Wellllllllll Spence...

Final 11: Merge, Baby Merge - Sakai Inferno

I. MADE. IT. FUCK. YES.

Making the merge AND jury is just such an awesome milestone for me. I really feel like I’ve redeemed my performance from Blood vs. Water, and like - I’ve honestly gotten past the point where I’m terrified of going out. I’ve hit every milestone I wanted to besides winning at this point, so I’m not gonna play scared.

Caleb. Is. Gone.

He’s too volatile. Keeping Caleb around keeps around an unstable element I can’t control. He doesn’t have a ton of social capital, but his style is more effective the longer he lasts. In part, because it makes him a goat, and the closer a goat gets to the end, the bigger the temptation to keep them around. Additionally, a lot of people play the merge one vote at a time, safely - why take out someone with an idol when we can handle that later, take out other pressing threats, yada yada yada.

But that can’t happen. Caleb staying in this game allows him to gain traction, and while he’s transparent to me, people may fall for his promises thinking he won’t slit their throat. Caleb has already shown that he’s willing to throw me under the bus - this is all the call to action I need. Same my name once - you better get me out, because I WILL get you out. Maybe not instantly, maybe I’ll even work with you for a round or two - but I do not forget, and I do not forgive.

I’m assembling the troops. Part of me wants to go with Sakai, having an excellent relationship with Julia and a decent one with Eliza. On top of that, keeping the three Sakai around reduces the ever present target Ki has, with our four members, on top of our better overall relations, But, scary though it may be, now is the round to make the move, when the least suspect it and it’ll have the most impact.



Now, you might be wondering why the I decided to abruptly and suddenly put that gif there. WELL, I’LL TELL YOU WHY. I started writing this confessional last night, on the assumption that, if I didn’t FINISH writing it before I left for my DC trip on Saturday, that wouldn’t be THAT major – things can’t change THAT suddenly, can they?

Well, they can AND did, and here’s why.

The plan that had been put in place (that I hadn’t gotten around to explaining in this QUITE yet) was to ideally boot Caleb, but have it be a 6-5 blindside. I didn’t entirely agree with this, honestly – I thought my relationships with Kat and Julia were solid enough that, with a BIT of time left, I’d let them in on the plan. Not enough time that they could change things up SIGNIFICANTLY – maybe give it five minutes before deadline.

Yeah, maybe they can tip Caleb off to play his idol, but at least three of them would have to compare notes in that short span of time and make a counter-play. MAYBE a bit earlier – let them strike at someone, if I felt confident they wouldn’t let the vote fall on me or I had immunity. If I lose someone because of this, it’d suck, but I could definitely play losing one of the alliance.

Here’s the thing though: Dana has an itchy trigger finger.

I don’t have all the details – I got a rushed explanation from Dana over mobile AIM sitting on a bus in Delaware. But basically, she told Kat about Caleb’s idol, probably to plant seeds about why we’re gonna gun for him this round. And either she outright told her this, or Kat intuitively picked up on this. And I guess I underestimated this relationship, but apparently Kat PANICKED, because she’s close with Caleb and doesn’t want him to leave.

So, she went around telling people Spencer told her Caleb had an idol. And that, predictably enough, blew everything up.

The seeds of distrust between Caleb and Spencer were already there, particularly post Jefragate. Lie though this may be, Spencer HAS been acting against Caleb and telling people about his idol.

The uneasy alliance Sakai and Ki were holding was basically blown up, and now it’s an all out war as to who can grab what Ozato’s and Gervase. And Julia, actually, which was a pleasant surprise.

Sydney, deciding to act on this knowledge, tried to capitalize on it and make an alliance against Ki. Dana wasn’t having it, obviously- I think my relationship with her was a crucial relationship, on top of having a meatshield in Spencer in front of her.

Dana apparently has full control over Gervase, so this is all good – and, on TOP of it all, Sydney wanted a six person alliance that didn’t include Julia. So now Julia feels like an outcast from her potential allies and her own tribe, which means she’s also ripe for us to scoop up, if we play it right.

What was supposed to be a subtle blindside has basically become an all out war. And, oddly enough, I STILL think I’m in a pretty decent spot. Unless my information is wrong, we have the numbers, even provided a successful idol play happens. And while I COULD in theory see me getting votes to prevent a counter idol-play, I think it’s unlikely, if only because the people they want to swing (Dana and Julia) would both be very unwilling to vote me, as far as I know.

(NOTE: YES I KNOW THIS IS A BIT LATE AND CALEB HAS IMMUNITY I HAD TO SLEEP OK? UPDATE WITH MORE STUFF WHEN I CAN.)

As for the vote as it stands: if he was an option, I would 100% be voting for Caleb. I don’t want him in this game, and every round he progresses terrifies me. Idol be damned, I’d make the move. But he isn’t, and now it’s all in flux.

Last night, the talk seemed to be “ok we’re definitely flipping on Sakai” - like, that’s where we immediately went to talk post-challenge, and there was talking and whatnot. The vote SEEMED to settle on Sydney, since the odds of her getting an idol played on her were incredibly low since she is so secondary in...just about everyone’s plans?

Then I was like, wait. We have a chat with Sakai. If we don’t discuss shit in there, they are gonna be SO SKETCHED. So like an hour after results I’m like “soooooo are we gonna talk about this?” and that was a very quick Gervase there. My intention in chatting there was just to ease idol concerns - like, Caleb wasting his idol would be great, but there’s still two others out there, and anyone could have them. Also, them getting a sense of the ~winds of change~ in general and trying to counter-play? Yeah, not great.

There was some talk of switching the vote to Eliza, since Gervase would prefer that and we want to solidify his vote, but we went to bed undecided on that. Also, Julia has a spyglass from Ukiyo, and there was some talk about her using it on Gervase. That way, we’d know if he was hiding an idol or something from us, and also flush that out for future rounds. But this was all new-ish and I logged off at midnight because I was tired as fuck from walking all day.

So I log on today, and, GUESS WHAT? “Oh I dunno, it might be safer to switch to Gervase.” ARE YOU PEOPLE FUCKING KIDDING ME? Like, I’m honestly ambivalent at this point to who’s going home - my relationships with Sydney and Eliza are solid, nothing special, but it’d be a bit sad to see them go. Although on the other hand, having someone with positive feelings toward me head to jury is good, since I literally talked to Brad once and I didn’t have anything SPECIAL with Jefra.

But I digress. Are we seriously gonna back out of ANY interesting moves? Like I get that we all wanna win, but isn’t having fun and doing crazy stuff at semi-reasonable times part of why we’re here to play? No? Just me? OK, great. Like voting out Gervase is the boring, easy move - and just because it’s easy doesn’t mean it's smart. But I get the sense that the momentum has shifted to voting him, so what the hell can I do? Like I’m fine with him leaving in general, it’s just that we’re making, yet again, a passive move. I’m not Jeff Probst, but I am a perennial second placer - I know you need to make something happen at some point to get some jury points.

I’m talking to Dana about it, trying to make sure she doesn’t do anything rash. Pinning it ALL on Spencer, because honestly without his support it WOULDN’T have happened. She suggested getting a group together to blindside Julia (apparently Caleb/Sydney had a fight and now Eliza is against Caleb/Julia?) but like, voting Julia just doesn’t benefit me. Yes she’s riding the middle, but I kinda am right there with her - and she does have loyalty to me, more than Eliza and Caleb anyway. Also, I’d need to flip on all of Ki to do that, which KINDA mitigates everything I’ve been working toward - if I’m gonna piss of a side, it’s not gonna be the one I’m SURE have my back.

I don’t think she’ll blow up the group, if only to protect me, but I need to make sure she knows I’m with her going forward for the success of my game. At this point, I’d rather the vote go on Gervase if ONLY because I showed the vote I made to Julia and Caleb, and that would KILL ME if I went back on it. (I can say as much from experience.) But I wish I hadn’t been put in that situation to BEGIN with. Running damage control is not fun, folks.

Final 10: Let’s Get Crazy

You know, it’s kinda weird when I think about it. For the longest time, Sakai had this perception as the power tribe - yeah, Ki was involved with them, but we were like the Tyson to their Coach. Yeah, we’re gonna fuck you over, but we’ll smile when we stab you, ride in the ambulance and get you patched up - but stab you nonetheless. That part’s non-negotiable, unfortunately.

And I think that perception is still there, to some extent - Sakai is still seen as something needs to be toppled, an establishment with some entitlement. Caleb has always rubbed people the wrong way, Eliza is super paranoid and game focused, and Julia’s middle riding is starting to become more transparent to the Ozato’s. And this is good, this is great - if we have people think in the short-term, about individuals instead of the whole, that’s awesome.

But at the same time, the Ki foursome is there, and we’re tight, and I have to wonder - when do we become the enemy? When do we need to go? In a matter of two rounds, our numbers eclipsed Sakai, and that has to be in the minds of the Ozato’s. Spencer isn’t doing us any favors in that regard, with all the double dealing he does - I’m not exactly helping that perception when I out all this to Dana and pin anything and everything Ki does that upsets her on Spencer.

Which, y’know, is MOSTLY fair. As I said last post, I didn’t want to do Gervase last round, I was fine with eliminating Sydney. Then Spencer and James double back, say hey let’s maybe do Gervase - so I’m like, OK. I start confirming with Sakai’s by showing them my parchment, spent my usual effort on it so they wouldn’t suspect anything, and in my mind the vote has shifted - against my will, but shifted nonetheless.

Then Spencer starts reconsidering following Dana’s (righteous) anger, and at that point he had already forced me to a point where I had to commit to a Gervase boot. You can’t reseal the soda when the tab’s been popped- it’ll inevitably leak everywhere in a flat, sticky mess if you try. We COULD in THEORY not vote Gervase, but in Survivor your supposed to use every vote - I had already begun leveraging the Gervase boot for future rounds, and double backing on that would hurt me going forward.

So I’m talking to Dana and pinning all her frustration onto Spencer. I told her every time he said something she would think is dumb or overplay-ey, showed her quotes she sent him that he in turn sent to me or to all of Ki, and in general provided any statements I knew she wouldn’t respond well to. If your gonna change the vote last second on me, I’m gonna make you pay for it dude. I think Spencer has a great strategic mind, and a lot of time he knows what move he has to make to further his game - but I’m not sure he has the follow-through to gain ALL the benefits he can from such a move.

Take Aubry from this season during the last pre-merge vote. Taking out Peter was absolutely the correct move, because otherwise she’d be putting herself in a tie situation to save someone who wouldn’t hesitate to cut her or her allies in the post-merge. Awesome, correct move. The way she did it? Friggin’ moronic. She didn’t cut any deals (that we saw) to benefit from it and wrote her parchment in a way that clearly indicated she was A-OK with writing down the name of her supposed new ally.

Tribal Council isn’t just somewhere you go to eliminate someone - it’s also where you go to solidify your future and allies and path to the end. And I think Spencer sees that he needs those, and sees what he has to do, but his execution is...lacking. Was eliminating Gervase a good move for us? I can certainly see the reasoning for doing it, it’s not awful. Is switching the vote last second in a way that pisses them off and makes you come off as somewhat commanding a good move? I’m gonna give that a hard no.

Is it a bit manipulative of me to pin everything on him, when James and I were both big reasons Gervase went home? Sure it is. (Insert Nick “but at least I’m honest about it” HERE.) But he’s trying (and failing) to do similar things. It’s like, you can tell it’s his first (maybe second or third) ORG because he’s not picking up on the subtleties of how to pin blame and court favor, even if he tries.

For example, he told Marisa that James and I were the reason the vote flipped - which frustrated me greatly, because I was the reason it STAYED flip, not the catalyst for it to begin with. And I told Marisa this, and explained why no, I didn’t want Gervase then, but BECAUSE of Spencer I want him now, and spun it the best way I could. And she got my point, and I just vocalised it in a certain way to clarify that no, I’m not the crazy one changing things last second - Spencer is. And maybe I’m not explaining it as aptly as I could, but my general point is - a snake is only scary if you don’t see its fangs.

Wow, that got on a tangent quick and did not stop. OK, so that’s the basic recap of last round written when I had a bit more time to process it, on top of some impressions it gave me about my competition. Here’s where my head’s at going forward:

I think, at this vote, two tribes are gonna team up to eliminate someone from the third. I think, at the moment, I have Dana locked up - with Gervase’s elimination, I think I might actually be her closest ally, since she has never been fond of Sydney and Kat blew everything she told her up. Assuming Ki stays loyal (a big assumption, but I think an apt one) we actually have all the votes we need to eliminate anyone of our choosing, barring a correct idol play.

Do I think we could go to Sakai? I think it’s certainly possible. But I also think Sakai is gonna target a Ki this round - it might not even be crystallized as a plan yet at this point, but it makes the most sense for them. I think Caleb and Eliza are already wary of Ki, particularly Spencer and probably me, especially given the 4-3-3 split we currently have. I think, if they do decide the vote, Julia would steer them off of me and Spencer, but losing Marisa or James wouldn’t be IDEAL.

I’ve been losing so much in the Finale lately, that having two goats I know are loyal to me is just so great, ESPECIALLY because I actually adore them as people. Marisa has been my #1 since the beginning and James is just so utterly nice, it’s awesome. If I can make that FTC happen, maybe give Spencer fourth, maybe cut him earlier if I’m worried he could beat me there sheerly through visibility. My goal for this game? DO. NOT. FUCKING. LOSE. AT. FTC. If I’m a juror, fine whatever - I haven’t been one in forever at this point. But if I’m gonna lose, THAT’S how I want it to happen.

But I digress. (Again.) Going with Sakai is like ignoring all the warning signs down the road. After the vote, I went to our seven person chat to have the usual post-vote congratulations, and only Ki people were posting. That’s a clear indicator that they’re not invested in maintaining the appearance that they’re super into it. And that COULD mean that that’s not even a thought in their mind, they’re so comfortable that they don’t feel the need.

...

Yeah, that’s cute. But no, they don’t feel any loyalty to us. They’re gonna go for us either this round, or the next. And the best way to pre-empt our elimination? Go for them. So, ideally, one of Eliza or Caleb goes this round. If we can make that happen, we just need to prevent the 3 and 2 for converging against a Ki next round, and if we hold on to Spencer’s double vote - it’s game and set at Final 8, barring a correct idol play and absolute loyalty. Which, now that I think about it, is a lot to expect - BUT DAMMIT I WANT TO BELIEVE.

Do I think Ozato could team up with Sakai to vote a Ki? I think it’s certainly possible. Do I think it’ll be me? No, I think Dana would oppose that - I’d hope the other Ozato’s too, but realistically they’re not that attached to me. I think like, working that bond with Dana, given how sociable and likable she is, is really paying dividends for me, so long as she is loyal to me - you don’t necessarily need a deep relationship with everyone, just the people with the loudest voices. In my mind, I’m up there, as are Caleb, Julia, Spencer, and Dana. 4/5 ain’t bad, eh?

So, this round IDEALLY we can feel comfortable enough to split on Caleb and Eliza. If not, throw on straight vote on one of them. Given how the numbers are shaking out at the moment, getting Caleb’s idol out is pivotal - either through a flush or a (hopefully unsuccesful) play. I mean, having it in there at Final 9 would be nice to solidify our group - but it’d most likely come at Julia’s expense, and could ALSO be a powerful uniting tool for the new five. Now that I think about it, taking out a person who could most likely unite that five might be the best play - figuring out who exactly that IS, on the other hand, is a bit more tricky.

And one last thing before I end this confessional. The re-opening of Ukiyo is interesting, but looking at the prize list it ideally WON’T shake things up too much. (Hahaha the VL is gonna hate that statement, eh?) The Time Machine is cool as a concept, but I don’t think people lie about their votes often enough for it to be a major gameshaker. Caleb and Dana both managed to snag a half idol, but Kat apparently didn’t have enough funds - which is solid. Spencer has enough funds for all of Ki to be able to afford it, so I asked him to transfer all of us the BP so we get to sixty before the results go up - that, way if one of us wins immunity, we can grab that last half for sure. And either prevent the idol from being created or get it for the group - I’d consider giving Dana it, but not SOON, y’know?

There’s a good chance I go this round. And, you know, I’m OK with it if it happens - but I’m feeling confident, none the less.

So, going into this round, I figured - I got to go for broke. Well, I don’t HAVE to, but from my perspective, approaching early and earnestly is the key to getting someone on your side. I decided this round that a Sakai has to go - ideally, Caleb with a flush so that a Ki doesn’t go.

So, I went to Sydney and boldly presented it. I was worried about coming off as hyper aggressive, trying to lead the game, but I wanted to do it before immunity results. I feel like that makes it come off better, at least - like, it’s not like they won immunity so I’m pandering for their suddenly very desirable vote. And it makes it seem like a PLAN, like - a call to action. Not desperately clinging to votes.

I told her I wanted to bring together a Ki / Ozato alliance in the hopes of flushing out Caleb’s idol. And I think she was a bit surprised that I sprung the offer on her - up until this point, I really HAVEN’T been gaming super hard, obviously anyway. Behind the scenes, to my allies? Sure. But it’s the Final 10, so I figured I’d try to bring people together in a dare I say Cydney-esque way?



Anyway, I went about doing everything I could to get that up and running. Talking to Sydney, Kat, and Dana, and encouraging the other Ki’s to talk so it didn’t seem like a single dude with a harebrained scheme. Last night we managed to get a chat up and running. And there, we decided on 4 votes Caleb, 3 votes Eliza.

Do I feel confident in that? HELL NO. Discussion there was stilted as fuck, and whenever I left, there was no one around to like, catalyze it. And Spencer disappeared because timezones when we FINALLY got a decent amount of people around, on top of Dana not being around because of work. So I was basically forced to lead the discussion or it wouldn’t happen at all. FANTASTIC.

So, I really feel like I don’t know where they stand. Like Sydney told me she wouldn’t tell the other side about our agreement, and said that Caleb was targeting me and I would likely get votes; I later got independent confirmation from Kat that that was the case. I’ve been working Sydney and Kat over hardcore - I think offering them a concrete deal might be the ticket to fully solidifying them, if I need to do that. Maybe a Final 5 deal with the Ozato girls and one of the other Ki’s, I dunno.

I finally got to touch base with Dana tonight, and while they HAVEN’T flipped (thank God for that) they are still debating between essentially keeping me or Eliza, since it seems that Caleb is gonna for sure play his idol. (We’ll ignore my irritation with that for now.) And Kat seems to think Eliza is vital to her game, which is giving her a bit of pause. BUT, if they do do that and tell Dana, she’s willing to flip with us, we use Spencer’s double vote, and suddenly it’s a 6-5 blindside on one of them. Ideally Sydney at that point, because she's wishy washy and hard to talk game with, but who knows if Dana would be down for that.

There was some talks of Dana giving me her immunity necklace (not the one she just won, the one she got at Ukiyo) but she ultimately decided not to. Can’t say I’m HAPPY about this, but this round basically comes down to - can Dana get the legwork done to make this happen, and if she can’t, will she be able to get the info AND be willing to share it with us? Outright trusting Kat and Syd is probably suicidal, but at this point, I need to put my trust in Dana, and hope the work I put into our relationship has paid off. Or it’s my neck on the guillotine.

Apparently Kat and Sydney have fallen on our side for this round, according to Dana. I’m still super nervous - this vote is gonna be INCREDIBLY close, especially with a Caleb idol most likely being played. We’ll see how it goes - there has been some pressure to flip it to 4-3 in favor of Eliza instead of Caleb, or use the double vote to make it 4-4-3 so she doesn't have time to campaign. Ugh, I’m worried - I feel confident I’m getting three votes at least, WHICH IS NOT A GREAT FEELING.