I'm gonna do a tribe by tribe analysis this time.

Y'mra S'bor

As a tribe they're leagues ahead of the competition and like some of you have said, I'd also be really surprised if they don't steamroll through to a swap. I'm honestly fine with that too. As things stand it seems like Rob would still be the first boot over there and I'm rooting for him to last for a while. I have to admit though that Rob seems to have no one to blame for his position but himself. Caryn, Erik and Kelley all seem to find him difficult to connect with and he doesn't appear to be bothering with Kim or Rory... and you know that's really a shame because I think on paper, he had the best odds of getting himself into a good spot going in. He desperately needs to up his social game.

Speaking of the social game... Caryn's winning personality is beginning to grate on her tribe, specifically on Erik, and I LOVE IT. Perfect casting. I love watching interpersonally abrasive players in this game and she's delivering. She picks up on things too though... she's very perceptive so I don't think that her causticity is a result of poor self-awareness... I think she just pretty much doesn't care if she pisses anyone off by being condescending or passive aggressive. I think that her plan of keeping herself at a comfortable distance from the power core on Y'mra S'bor isn't a bad strategy at all either; with them being such dominant group she doesn't have a lot to worry about in the immediate future... I have a feeling that Caryn is going to burn a few bridges down the line too, and she will give no fucks about it.

Rory is doing well for himself and I hope he keeps it up. His play with Vytas, undermining Kim's move with the mask and taking the credit for it, was pretty great. I'm still rooting hard for Kim but I don't see her being able to control things like she did in the first Sausage Island... most of her closest allies seem to be a step or two ahead of her right now... she really seems to underestimate both Erik and Rory. I did enjoy though how she caught Yve in a lie about the masks!

Erik is still in the best spot, hands down. They all see him as a gentle little lamb but deep down he's a lion. He's positioned so well within Y'mra S'bor and his cross tribal bonds will help him exponentially in the future. He's still my pick to win the whole thing.

Finally it was a quiet round for Kelley, but she's still in a really solid spot, what with her alliance with Erik and Kim and her working relationship with Rory. Sailing a little under the radar definitely isn't a bad thing for her after her really strong start.

Sangoma

What a cluster!

So basically what I've gathered is that Sue was the obvious fifth wheel, but because she worked so hard in the challenge, Sierra, Taj and Vytas all felt bad about voting her out. Meanwhile Garrett didn't do much at all (but neither did Sierra or Vytas really so lol,) which made him a potential target. Taj and Vytas were also concerned though about Sierra's potential relationship with Sue, and neither of them wanted to risk dealing with a potential tie at Sangoma 's next TC if Garrett went home. Taj also really didn't want Garrett to go (none of them really did actually, except for Vytas for a brief moment when he had some strange epiphany and thought to himself that he could get a HII out of a Garrett blindside? Lol wtf... yeah right!) So anyway, Taj, being tight with Vytas, contemplated a Sierra vote to him in passing for some reason, which raised huge red flags with Vytas, who took that as Taj trying to play all sides and pit everyone against one another. Taj settled on Sue in the end, but Vytas told Sierra about "Taj's" concerns about her and Sue, and also about how Taj threw out Sierra's name, so a new core alliance of three was formed between Garrett, Sierra and Vytas and suddenly everyone decided that they hate Taj and she's a snake. Taj is now a dead woman walking, thanks to Vytas, who she was completely loyal to along with Garrett... lmao...

On one hand I'm so happy that Garrett is safe, and I do like Sue too, but Taj was one of the last people I had pegged for the boot this round! In all honesty I think it's clear that Vytas overanalyzed everything but Taj definitely deserves at least partial credit for her own demise, having mishandled things by throwing out half of her tribe member's names as potential vote options. Ultimately Taj going benefits Sierra the most, hands down, and Sue obviously, who once again survives by the skin of her teeth to see another day. If Taj gives Sue her mask, Sue will only need one more to acquire the Sangoma Idol and all hell will once again break loose if they head back to TC again...

Marehemu

There wasn't a lot going on for them this round. Monica is getting stir-crazy, which is fun. She's legitimately nuts and I love it... I love HER. Her whole "Influential Monicas Throughout History" thing was so weird and so great. One thing I found interesting was that she's on Katie's radar as being overly eager and overly strategic. I honestly don't see anything coming of that until after a swap at least, since there's plenty of fodder on that tribe right now in JFP and Stephen.

I would love for Monica to get the Marehemu Idol just because it's one more thing that will go to her head and just... lol. Katie could get it too though as she seems to be networking well cross tribally. Also what was up with Katie saying that she "guesses" that she's in an alliance with Austin even though the two of them have only talked once or twice? I thought that was weird but funny. She seems to like Austin though and Austin seems to like her (somewhat.) I think that they both prefer others over one another though... but anyway, I'm rambling...

Yve seems to still be in the best spot within the tribe, in spite of her computer fiasco. Kim catching her in that lie about her masks could come back to haunt her though! I wouldn't mind if Marehemu lost the next IC and cut Stephen, before he has a chance to assimilate in a swap scenario... he just doesn't bring a lot to the table... I'm sure he's a sweet guy though.