Considering I've written almost 3000 words or more for my last 2 confessionals, I'm going to TRY making this one a bit shorter. There isn't an absolute ton to cover which is a good sign. Edit: lol yeah that's not true.
So another auction! Eric and I cleaned up at the Epic 3 auction but I knew that wasn't going to be the case here. In Epic 3 we were in significantly different positions than right now which enabled us the chance to snipe a lot of the prizes away (and Matt isn't here to bid $10 on everything bless his heart). It was actually fairly quiet when it came to trying to plan for where things would go. We were all just kind of sitting there waiting around for people to tell us where they were bidding and how we can get the most prizes. The group of Kim, Eric, Mike, and I is still existent, just not very powerful.
Mike, Heather, and Monica all posted publicly what they were bidding on. INTERESTING strategy and I am guessing they all guaranteed got the prize they bid on. What they could have potentially done was assume no one was bidding anything on theirs because they publicly claimed it, so they bid a little on that and a lot on some other ones. Not sure if anyone DID that. I doubt Monica did and I feel like Mike would have told us if he had. Heather I'm not sure. I feel like one day I may try this strategy but I'm too greedy trying to get multiple prizes.
I end up asking Jeremiah where he is going to put his. At first he says all of it is going SOMEWHERE but he doesn't say where. Then I poke and prod a little bit and he finally tells me his is putting all 100 on box 10. Ok perf, so I know to avoid 4 pinatas now for sure. That leaves 6 more and then Eric, Kim, and I who have yet to dole out any money.
Up until last minute we continue to not dole out money. Finally it's getting way too close to the deadline and I just decide to say Kim, Eric, and I should all bit 50 - 50 on the remaining piñatas. Or well close to 50 - 50. I know I did a 49 – 51 split just to counter anyone else doing the 50 – 50 thing. At least I would get 1 thing, but of course the entire auction comes down to luck if you don’t know where everything is going.
Well auction results came out and I wasn’t sure whether to be really happy or to cry a bit on the inside.
Things to be happy about:
Eric and Mike are safe! Eric got immunity and Mike got the PoV. Those are 2 people in my corner who are now safe so that’s really great. Kim ended up getting the piñata prize list which is also really cool. It basically showed what everyone got and how many candies are in the game AND shows the possibility of other idols being out there. I THINK she came to the conclusion that no more candy idols could be formed with what was just from the piñatas.
Things to cry about:
Sierra won HoH and Mike and Eric are both safe. Heather won the MVP. Sooo I am practically guaranteed to go up. Kim, Monica, and I are all still seen to be working with Eric so of course everyone is going to try breaking that up.
It is actually really irritating how simply being associated with him makes me a target. I understand WHY but I have started to realize something as this game is going on. I keep hearing that “Eric hasn’t talked to me in rounds, blah blah blah.” He has put himself in the spot he is in rn by not talking to people. He is a name and people see him as a threat because he is Eric. Which has gotten me thinking……….
Last season Eric had the win in the bag no matter who he went up against by F6 imo. He would have beaten Fabio in the end, even though Fabio was seen as the figurehead. But Eric had better social relations with the other side that wasn’t Fabio and he was responsible for a lot of the strategic events that went down. THIS season isn’t that Eric, at least I don’t think. The comparison has been made countless times by him that he is Fabio. He doesn’t expect to make it to the end because he is such a big threat, but he wants to make it as far as possible. Well, I think I may be able to develop better relationships with people than Eric has. Kim, Zmanda, Sierra, Jeremiah, and Erik I think I certainly can. Mike, Heather, and Jerri I’m not sure but I’d like to think is possible. I may be wasting time writing this paragraph because I doubt the situation would come up, but I think I can beat Eric at the end? IF I continue to navigate my way through all of this then I think the chance is certainly there. The biggest issue I would have is burning the people I have said I have good relationships with. But I’ll talk more about that later. I have left this confessional for about 2 days and developments keep happening.
But back to the results. So Sierra won the HoH. I am expecting to be nominated because I have hardly talked to her. I know Kim tried offering her and Zmanda a bit of an alliance deal with Mike. Well that went out the window when Mike told Heather who went on to tell everyone else about it. So that’s cool. I finally bring myself to talk to Sierra because honestly it is sad how long it has been since I last had, ESPECIALLY if I’m supposed to be working with her. And I actually do like Sierra. Very laid back, good conversationalist, she reminds me a lot of Julie. PROBABLY because they are both past winners of this series and I know are extremely good players. She always seems to be so open when talking to you. While Zmanda is far more public imo, I think I recognize that Sierra is the better player in the pair just because she is able to do what Zmanda does and get way less flak for it, just due to their personalities.
So anyway Sierra talked to me and admitted that although Mike and Monica were her to initial nominees, she did have me listed as her replacement. Like I said I wasn’t surprised. She followed up by saying she wanted Monica gone out of the 2 of Monica and I. This is fully based on who deserves to be in more and who has been around. Interesting and very classy move on Sierra’s part. Of course I like Monica and I’m sad to see her go, but I know that it’s literally the best case scenario for the round.
It doesn’t help that Kim was nominated soon after by MYP Heather (who she never talks to, but also more on that later). So this meant that the remaining allies Eric had (Monica, Kim, and I) were all nominated. Yeah well that’s pretty bad and is extremely telling for how I need to fix my game. I may be safe this round but I’m not sure how great of a spot I am in for the future. I did know that I needed to do my rounds to make sure I wasn’t going to get evicted.
So Eric and Mike obviously told me they would vote Monica. There was the possibility to play an idol for this round to gain majority and decide who goes, but we’d only have majority for this one round and ONLY if Jeremiah were to vote with us no matter what. It seemed like a waste to use it this round if one of Monica, Kim, or I was getting eliminated anyway. Mike and Eric are all sorted and I believe them when they say they are with me.
I didn’t really get much of an opportunity to speak with Jerri. All I know from her is that she won the exile prize from the auction. Very nice of her to tell me, and I like Jerri too. Because I have been away we haven’t exactly talked much, but since I have been back I have certainly tried to. It’s not like we have any alliance going, but at least some sort of relationship is good to have come jury management time and FTC. I’ve been trying my best with that but this IS epic afterall, which literally scarred me for ORG life after #mostburnedbridges of EpicSbb3. Jerri is someone who has an excellent shot of having the HII from the auction as well. I bid $49 on box 1 and Eric bid $49 on box 5. Literally all she needed to have done was bid 50 – 50 on boxes 1 and 5 and she would have gotten both. The possibility is super high of this I think which worries me. Jerri isn’t against me, but she isn’t working with me yet. Apparently she went to Eric with the idea of her and Heather coming with us to vote out Zmanda or Sierra. This is an interesting development I’m sure we will see more of later.
Now here comes Heather. Heather has been getting a lot of hate recently. Jeremiah, Zmanda, heck even Mike at this point have all called her shady. She doesn’t seem to know when to stop talking to other people about things OTHER people have told her. She is such a blabbermouth and makes Mike a minor liability simply because he tells her everything expecting her to do the same. Well idk if she always does. What I do know is that Heather ALSO can have that idol if she was smart and bid a lot on that prize but then not a lot on the MVP because she publically claimed it. Her having the idol is basically an identical situation as to Jerri. IDEALLY she would have told Mike about having the idol, but he didn’t say she had it so he is either hiding it or Heather is lying to him about it.
I also know Erik and Eric bid on the HII but Erik claims to have bid only $15 to Kim, which is less than Eric who didn’t win it. Kim is suspicious of him but I have tried to establish that he definitely does not have the idol. I don’t think he does, he would have told me if so. But back to the Heather thing. She told me she didn’t want to vote for me and she wasn’t going to. Awesome! I talk to her about saying how I guess the auction could have gone worse for me. She apparently knows about what prize I won (which I’m sorry but is kinda a dud). I brought up how I was probably safe then if she wasn’t voting me which she sounded fairly surprised at. Well sorry for assuming if you are not voting me that means Zmanda, Sierra, Erik, and Jerri aren’t either? Well, she claims that “There's 7 votes and there's at least two people wanting each of you out lol.” What does that mean? Who are these 2 people each? Well I asked her and she said “I heard something about something and what you said made it seem so much more believable. Maybe I can explain more later but not now.” Coooooool. So now she is leaving me hanging and I have no idea what she means by any of this. I know she wants Kim out but the only way she has the votes for that is if Zmanda has been lying to Kim this entire time about voting not-her.
I had my own chat with Zmanda which was surprisingly informative. I tried to get the point across to her that being associated with Eric thus far has been tanking my game. He is seen as radioactive and apparently doesn’t even try talking to people. She claims that he “doesn’t care” about me. Well I know that last part is true but I don’t intend on arguing that. I realize Zmanda holds a lot of power rn and she has a close thing with Kim so I don’t plan on getting her mad. She brought up how she thought Eric and I were basically like her and Yul, a pair and always talking together. Well she is correct! I told her that was the case but not I literally can’t do that because I will get eliminated. This is also true! What seemed odd to me was that she never compared my relationship with Kim to her and Yul. I’m not sure if that is because she thinks she is closer or just simply to avoid getting me worried about it, I did not it. She ALSO admitted this: “Well I'll be honest with you about one thing. Going into this nominations I was thinking that you should go. Because I did try and reach out for something between you me Sierra mike and Kim, but mike blew that up in my face and it seemed like you were just stuck on working with Eric. So I'm sure people are gonna say I said that I was targeting you, but I do think I've had a change of heart. So I'll let you know that before untrustworthy people like heather try and throw me under a bus”
So I was her initial target. Apparently not Sierra’s, but Zmanda’s? Seems a little weird for them to have different primary targets. The important part is the fact that I am not her target anymore. The OTHER important part is that Kim offered an alliance with us, Zmanda, Sierra, and Jeremiah. Zmanda was worried about Mike but Jeremiah is more trustworthy (and filled with Heather hate). I trust him and I certainly trust him to work with me. I do need to touch base with him though and look at our options.
I am looking at this now and my gosh. Looking at solely numbers wise this next round is going to be HUGE. Zmanda, Sierra, and Erik are going to work together. Mike and Eric are working together. There is a pretty big possibility Heather and Jerri go over to work with Mike and Eric. If they do then Jeremiah, Kim and I are the ones who decide what goes on and what side dominates. THIS is where things get tricky.
Turning on Zmanda and Sierra right after making an alliance with them may as well be asking them directly to never vote for one of us from the jury. Zmanda said quite literally to Kim that if she turned on her FOR ERIC she’d probably vote for Heather at the end. Those are some BIG words and very drastic. At the same time I don’t want to leave Mike and Eric out to try. We have been working with them all game and you know what we’d be burning them too, although I don’t think the reaction would be so negative. I REALLY don’t expect Kim to vote against Zmanda at this point. I can’t expect her to vote her next round right after Zmanda basically threatened her jury vote AND after they have started getting so close. I’m ngl seeing the Zmanda Kim lovefest was NOT something I expected when this season started, but it’s a fairly bewildering spectacle. I know of its existence and I’m not going to get too involved, but just on a lighter note I do think it’s funny it’s happening and am pleasantly surprised by the budding relationship.
But I really have been trying to think what the best side to team up with would be. I can’t see myself being able to seamlessly shift to either side but I GUESS anything is possible. The way I see it rn is that when I pick one side it’s done and I am going to need to ride that out for a few rounds.
What can happen this round is Jerri and Heather team up with Eric and Mike and use their exile thing on Sierra or something. Then the numbers are 4 – 4 with me in the middle of things. That means I would be able to vote off Zmanda without making Jeremiah and Kim get blood on their hands. Does that mean I lose her vote at the end? Very much possible so. But if Zmanda goes I think I have a bit of a clearer shot to the end. I made another spreadsheet that looks something like this:
Ok ok ok so there are a few weird looking things in there (if you can read it). For starters Heather at the end? Eric at the end? Voting Kim out at 6? Yeah it looks screwy I know. It’s not perfect. What I have been trying to do is figure out an F3 situation where I could win. I feel like there aren’t a ton of people I can beat in the end right now. Maybe Erik, Heather, Jerri, MAYBE Mike, MAYBE Jeremiah, MAYBE MAYBE Eric. I don’t think I could beat the remaining players in the end, which does kill me because that means turning on this alliance and having to crushingly vote out Kim. It may be a bit early to be planning stuff like this just because BB rounds and twists screw things up.
And you know what I am looking at this epic memory wall again after spending so long going back and forth on this confessional. I THINK I may actually have a chance if I stick with Zmanda Sierra and Co? lol. Even if I make it to the end with Kim, what I see is a bunch of people who haven’t talked much to Kim and who I have moderately good relationships with. I also see people I may not have burned as badly (in ideal situations). If by some miracle the F3 is Jeremiah, Kim, and I, I see the following occurring.
Ronnie and Eric are with me, I had a better relationship to them then Kim. Same with Jerri and Heather. That is literally already 4 votes on a probably 10 person jury. There is still Monica who I think I can get to vote for me if I kick ass in her jury question and Shont who none of the F3 would have spoken a word with. Zmanda, Sierra, and Erik may have felt burned by Kim if they make it there, but I can’t bank on that or even them voting me over her. Jeremiah may also get their votes. That leaves Mike who, I’m not going to lie, if I am fully responsible for voting him out in a 3rd game in a row I wouldn’t even be close to expecting his jury vote. It sucks having to think of it like this and banking on one of my best friends literally screwing people over and making them bitter, but sometimes that’s the way these things happen. I’m just trying to think as objectively as I can.
So PRETTY much this got drastically way longer than I expected. I am worried about how I am getting to the end but I feel like I may be in a position of power/decision next round. I just hope I can make the right decision and work things out. It’s been a helluva game so far and I don’t plan on trying any less just yet.
