Alright I have a giant writing project I've been procrastinating all day, so maybe this will get me in the zone.
Didn't get to talk about Chris O on the last roundtable, but he was definitely the main character of the last swap phase - as evidenced by him being the subject of 2/3 episode titles - so I'd be remiss if I didn't start with him.
There's really no getting around it: Chris played poorly on this tribe. There's not even much of an excuse to fall back on; almost everyone on Tascheter 4.0 mentioned that Chris's actions dug his grave further, and even then, half the people in the voting booth only voted against him reluctantly.
That being said, there are some positives for Chris to take away from this. We constantly derided Chris for not being proactive enough, but here he had a clear gameplan and put in the work to execute it. He just had some bad assumptions about what the alliance structure of the tribe was like, and erred somewhat in how he represented his own alliance structure to others - no one believed his story that he wasn't close with TSL and co., and everyone clocked that he was looking to play the middle at merge.
In the grand scheme of things though, a clear L that you can't write off with excuses can be valuable. In my last game, I made a conscious effort to play the most confident game I possibly could, so that I would either win dominantly or run head-first into my limitations; the latter occurred, but that experience gave me clarity about the leaks in my game. There's an opportunity here for Chris to use this experience to modify his playstyle and become an even more deadly player.
Alright, now to the main character of this phase of the game: our lord and savior, Jessus Christ.
Between this vote and the Bryce vote in Round 1, there are valid strategic nitpicks you could make against her in this game. At the very least, the performativeness of both moves greatly exceeds their actual strategic merit (not to say that the latter is negative though.)
But I think the performativeness, in a way, *is* the point. Through the bold moves she's made time and time again, Jess has continued to cultivate a reputation as a powerful player who isn't afraid to take charge. These qualities have instrumental value in helping her get beneficial votes through at Tribal Council, but perhaps more importantly, they also promote a broader narrative about herself that helps juries respect her as a player. Sometimes this competes with negative considerations in the eyes of the jury, but overall I'd say it's desirable for jurors to feel ambivalent about you on a personal level if they can't help but respect you on a game level.
Which brings us back to her performance at the merge Tribal. Jess has always been one of the faces of the game to the VL, but her double idol play has firmly established her as one of the faces of the game to the other players. It exuded ORG Winner Energy. The only problem is that I think she had enough of it already - her reputation, even before tonight, is at the point where anything she does is going to be viewed through the prism of "Jess is a scary, smart, cutthroat ORG legend". Her reputation has a compounding/snowball effect where almost any game move she makes will be seen as amazing. Thus, making a big move could be counterproductive for her, since she was already winning if she got to the end, but now it's even more obvious to everyone else that it would be suicide to let her get there.
As a contrast, I think Jake Bell is likely closer to the sweet spot than Jess here, although he's obviously erred on the side of not establishing enough of a threat profile.
Still, it just seems irresponsible at this point to predict anything but a Jess win, until proven otherwise.
Quick hits for the rest because I'm tired
Scully - Still one of the most interesting characters of the season, and a strong social player, but not trustworthy enough with information to be a good ally. Jess getting separated from him as long as she did was probably a good thing, and I feel bad for TSL that she's in a spot where she needs to rely on him.
TSL - Still a queen, MVP of the pre-merge, and would've gotten her way in this vote if the other side didn't have/wasn't willing to play two idols. But also, probably not a good idea to PM "fuck you" to the people that voted for you lol. There wasn't anything that bad in E8 as far as I know, but even there she was argumentative and dismissive at times which (rightfully) hurt her jury cred. She's still the frontrunner if she can take out one or two people on Jess's side, but a few more unforced jury management errors and she could easily lose to someone like Sam at FTC.
Joshua - I like basically everything I've seen from Joshua since he came back. I'm not worried that he's a "TSL Minion" just because he's working with her group for now; I think he has enough credibility as a player that I'd trust him to make good decisions if he ends up in endgame with that side.
Ricky - As someone who was watching his call with TSL, I think he leveraged his friendship with TSL to try and intimidate her into sticking with him, and I just feel bad for TSL. With the fallout of this vote, I could easily see him being to Jess what Matt VM was to her in E7 - but potentially without the willingness or foresight to ever turn on her. If Jess does win, Ricky will likely be complicit in it.
I've had a bit to drink, and I can't stop thinking about merge, so I thought I'd try my hand at recreating a one man 'oral history' of what is likely the greatest round in Endure history. Will it be completely accurate? Unlikely. But I've paid enough attention that I think I've got it down pretty close. And at worst, hopefully this is a fun viewer attempt at unraveling the tangled web that was.
So let's begin by setting the stage: Anthony, Casey, Jess, and Sean are immune from the soulmates twist; mind you the twist being a normal tribal with those immunities is a bit of a shock to many (namely TSL). Joshua is also immune as the meleager returnee. Ricky, TSL, and Jess have idols.
The Tascheter 6 of Anthony, Jake, Kate, Ukmar, Jess, and Ricky are essentially one side, and want to vote out Daigger (more or less). The other side consists essentially of TSL, Sean, Sam, Charity, and Casey, and want to vote out Kate (more or less). Joshua and Daigger are kind of in the middle, but in the isolated sense, and they want to vote Ricky. Ricky also really wants to vote Scully, but isn't getting any traction.
Idol paranoia runs rampant before the vote, and rightfully so. The wayback boys et al. are afraid Daigger has an idol, so they switch the vote to Sam. Someone (either Anthony or Ricky) leaks this to TSL. This then gets back to the wayback boys, and Ricky tries to use this opportunity to vote Scully. It doesn't stick, and the remaining 5 decide to vote TSL without Ricky, as he simply cannot vote her. Meanwhile, TSL decides to stray from the Kate vote, knowing that Joshua and Daigger want to vote Ricky. She brings Sam and Scully along with this plan as well. Ricky gives his idol to Jess (she now has 2), so that she can idol Kate and Ricky isn't the one to idol out his friend.
So the vote shakes out as follows: Ricky - TSL, Scully, Sam, Joshua, Daigger
TSL - Ukmar, Kate, Jake, Anthony
Kate - Sean, Charity, Casey
Scully - Ricky
Sam - Jess
TSL pulls in the two outsiders to create a plurality on Ricky with two of her core allies, the wayback boys stick with the TSL vote, and the remainder of TSL's allies vote Kate (remember, Sean tried to idol her out last round). However, two key things happen. Ricky knows that his group is voting TSL, and his heart cannot allow him to vote TSL (unbeknownst to him she's voting him). So, he throws his vote onto Scully, who he really wants out. Also, Jess is frustrated with the confusing coordination with the wayback boys et al. and, knowing her allies votes are still likely on TSL, decides to throw her vote onto Sam anyways. This proves pivotal.
Onto results, and Jess plays her first idol (Ricky's idol) on Ricky, as she was told he was getting more votes than Kate. Ricky is immune, the most votes are negated. Then TSL plays her idol, thinking she was accidentally tipped off by Ukmar innocuously saying "anyone want cake" in reference to Big Brother 10 minutes earlier. Unbeknownst to him, cake is part of the phrase necessary for playing the poppyverse idol, TSL plays that and laughs in his face, and the votes against her are thus negated. With two idols out of the bag, Kate is now in danger, and Jess follows through by playing her own idol on Kate, negating her votes. In succession, the 3 highest vote getters were saved by idols, and as a result we are left with a bonkers 1-1 tie after all that. This all playing out in darkness is just icing on the cake (no pun intended). Onto the revote.
The revote mostly follows "side" lines, as the wayback boys + Jess are joined by Casey in voting Sam, whereas TSL's gang (in a bit of a pickle now choosing moreso between two allies) decide to vote Scully. And truthfully, though Scully is attached to TSL by way of Sam and Sean, he has more individual connections on the side that's saving him, so it makes sense. It ties, and due to the chaos, we're left with Charity, Daigger, Jake, and Ukmar faced with the possibility of drawing rocks.
Charity is the most vocally against going to rocks, as she was rocked out in Endure 8, but the problem here is that most of the cast isn't vocal at all during the necessary discussion period to achieve unanimity. Most are apathetic due to already being safe, and even the 4 going to rocks are pretty okay with following Ricky's vocal pleas to vote Scully. The problem? Jess, Kate, and Sean won't agree, and force rocks. Three people who were immune decide not to fall in line with the unanimous decision, and you know what? It makes total sense. Jess and Kate are close with Scully, and to have pulled this huge move off just to have Scully go unanimously is a waste in their eyes. The tough position though is forcing some of their allies to draw rocks in the process. Sean is close with both Scully and Sam, and chooses to save them both by forcing the four eligible to draw rocks. Charity picks first, and picks the purple rock. Heart. Break. City.
So what have we learned? We've learned that if you're gonna draw rocks, don't lament how much you don't want to go to rocks beforehand, for the survivor gods are listening. We've learned that Endure merges are never going to be simple. We've learned that Taylor St. Louis doesn't take kindly to people coming for her. But most importantly, we've learned that Jessaca Harrison is one badass bitch. Two successful idol plays, a tie-inducing rogue vote, and a forced rock draw, all from her hand. Praise be to you, Jessus Christ.
Jess is going to win. People are going to say "she's a great shield to cut right before the end".
And they'll be saying that until she wins f4 immunity.
To recap what's been said in the VL after we lost Sean/Joshua/TSL.
This didn't have to be a pangonging. Most of these all stars aren't used to playing in the minority and the current minority is unintentionally doing everything they can to ensure the people voting together stick together as an alliance until the pangonging is complete.
We're down to Scully/Daigger/Sam in the minority and they're still turning off all people from wanting to work with them because I guess they're just not used to not having things go their way? I don't know!
Even Jake wasn't the greatest playing in the minority back when he was blindsided for the first time years ago in round 1 (although he picked up a ton after the first swap).
Jess and Ricky are examples of people who knew how to play the minority position seemingly perfectly. So shoutout to them if they read this.
yeah I just want to quickly say this narrative that Anthony/Jake aren't playing is absolutely ridiculous. They've put so much into this game, and just because they are doing things different than what you want doesnt mean they aren't playing! Anthony maybe having to leave potentially because of real life emergency is not a reason to hold that over his head!!!! He's giving this game his everything, and hes playing really really well.
(and they havent held personal things/strategic play against players just because things didnt go their way...)
Jess is going to win. People are going to say "she's a great shield to cut right before the end".
And they'll be saying that until she wins f4 immunity.
Ricky/Casey/Anthony should all be proud of the game they played, and I'm a little sad their games are going to be forgotten in favour of Jess's domination.
But Jess did dominate.
VL commentary is inherently kinda reactionary, and I think I got swept up in that a lot this season. So I wanted to do a final, What-I-Actually-Think-About-These-People post. A decent amount of my Discord VL commentary was clowning around and reacting to the characters on my screen, so like, only this post is canon lol.
PREJURY
Jay - We somehow made a worse tribe for Jay than Aion was; there was truly no chance Jay was making it out of Venant. Ricky regretted voting out Jay after the fact and Sean legitimately wanted to keep him, but Jay's only chance for longevity was for the rest of the tribe to unite against Joshua-Naomi-Amos-Daniela. I don't think this was realistic to expect in round one, the alliance structure was still too opaque.
Butler - I actually disagree with Butler's assessment that he's inherently bad at Survivor ORGs. He could be excellent, but I think his deep run in Somnium actually reinforced some bad lessons. Butler was well-positioned in that game despite his social game - I knew he was sketchy on Clotho but he was my only chance at having independence from Jessaca/Aaron. Butler massively overrates his ability to manipulate other people's perceptions of him, but I think he massively underrates his natural charm and charisma. Butler is just a great guy, truly one of the best humans in this community. If he found a way to channel more authenticity into his game I think he'd be near-unstoppable. As far as E11 specifically, I don't discount the possibility that his reputation followed him, but I stand by the above.
Dave - Similar to Jay in that their weakness is early game, then their skills come to the forefront in mid-to-endgame...even though they're very, very different people LOL. But I actually thought Dave made great strides this time in his early game play. From my vantage point, he just didn't quite vibe with Anthony, who was one of the more aggressive, proactive players on Satevis. Swap out Anthony for someone else and Dave could've had some longevity. I also think Dave would've thrived in this merge, because he never would've been as standoffish as the minority was, and he's someone that I'd trust to maneuver intelligently if he were in the majority. It also can't be understated how much Dave's absence was felt after he was voted out; this was the ultimate all-star season and yet at every phase so many of us would've gladly swapped Dave in for almost anyone. And I think that helps his "legacy" more than a lot of the other possible outcomes for Dave this season.
William - Robbed by Hannah to such an extent that I don't judge his relationships with the rest of Haftorang whatsoever. Without Hannah there to poison the well, I think William's relationships with the rest of the tribe could've been very different. William obviously deserves another chance, but as a semi-hot take I'd go even further and say that he deserves it more than anyone else in the cast.
Brie - Low-key terrible tribe for Brie. I think she thrives in a lot of different possible tribes, and she shouldn't let this game hurt her confidence about open ID!
Bailey - This game showed that Bailey is a great, great guy whose skillset isn't really suited to Survivor - or at least long-form games. Bailey showed pretty clearly that he just doesn't have that gear to cut people that he's built a close connection with...and who am I to say that's a skill he needs to develop?? This entire write-up is honestly a compliment.
Amos - One of the more self-aware ROPs. Amos grew into a more conscious, intentional game-player and character this season, but E10 Amos had a kind of innocence that I almost preferred. I still think (either) Amos would've thrived in E10's merge, but we saw this season that his ability to maneuver on a neutral-to-bad tribe for him could use some work. Still, his character arc from total meme in the E10 preseason to one of the first people we locked in for this all-star extravaganza makes my heart full.
Daniel - My favorite player from the first game I ever viewed (Power 9) and he delivered again this game. I was probably the lowest on his Satevis gameplay, but like, even I thought it was still excellent. That being said, I really think he leans on his (top-tier) manipulation ability too much - he can get what he wants from it in the short-term, but it incurs some long-term costs (Anders and Brie were long-term liabilities for him after the Dave vote, that could've come back to bite him even if he survived Tascheter2.) Magnificent to watch either way though.
LeCompte - If this were a live game, or we had a younger version of LeCompte with more time on his hands, I really think he could've dominated. Tbh I'm not sure how to evaluate what happened on Satevis2 for him. I want to say that it was a terrible tribe for him, but he knew so many people that I feel like there had to be a way. Then again, LeCompte pounded the Tampa Bay money line and held onto his Dogecoin, whereas I had the opposite stance to him on both, so what do I know?
Jenn - Even though she ended up with a mediocre placement, I think this game really showed why Jenn has been so successful in previous games. She really has a Sandra-esque confidence and no-nonsense attitude that you can't help but respect, both from the VL and obviously from the jury bench. In these games where everyone is so often fake, her honesty is refreshing. But she's also great at being fake when she wants to (i.e., becoming a #girlypop with Hannah).
Anders - I've gushed about him nonstop in the Discord VL, but he really is a god-tier character. He gave his all to this game, and had great moment after great moment. The contrast between his irreverence in the game and the intensity/passion he showed in his confessionals was always compelling. It sounds crazy to say, but in a 36-person season where he didn't even make the 14-person merge, I still think he'd be on the DVD cover.
Chris O - In my opinion, ends up being extremely relevant to the season. In his pre-season interview, it was clear that he thought he was just as good, if not better, than all the greats in Endure and the org community at large. He even mentioned that he was excited to break the tie he had with RTP for best average placement for a returnee (4th), which was...ambitious in a 36-person all-star cast lol. When the moment finally came to sink or swim on Tascheter4 against four winners and other legends in their own right, Chris stumbled over his own assumptions about the gamestate and got voted out at their only tribal. But weirdly enough, I think his "legacy" gets redeemed somewhat after his death. At one point in prejury chat, he lamented that he would've had a much better chance at longevity than Joshua, which at the time prompted a world-record eyeroll from me. But in retrospect, I think he was absolutely right. Chris O 100% would've played better from the minority than anyone from the actual minority. I even think he would've had a solid shot to win - especially since he's one of the few people that would've given Jess a run for her money in these individual immunity comps. Chris came into this season wanting to test himself against the best of the best, but I think the outcome was a bit more nuanced than the obvious fail it may have seemed at first.
Post Edited by Devon Sampson @ 25th Apr 2021 2:06:07 PM
Charity - Would've been a greater challenge to Jess's position in the game, given her comp prowess, relationship with Jake, and common sense not to give Jess another chance after she wronged her round 1. Regarding the latter, I think Charity deserves credit even over Jake, who let Jess wrong him on multiple occasions without any retribution. But Charity was flat-out wrong in her boot round when she pushed back against TSL's plan to change their votes right before tribal - even though new, relevant information was coming in! This shouldn't overshadow the quality of her game though. The most powerful, influential player in the game (Jess) threatened her entire position for a chance that Charity would get rocked out (when she could've pushed harder for a unan Scully vote in the conference stage), and the justification is clear (even though I still personally wouldn't have done it in Jess's shoes, but we'll get to that later.)
Joshua - The minority's gameplay was terrible, but I never thought Joshua played as poorly as many others in the VL were saying. Going back to the Wayback Boys would've been a weenie move after Haftorang2, and I think Joshua would've been able to maneuver well if his side had won the rock draw. He could've been more proactive in proposing a specific plan to Ukmar, who was literally crying at the prospect of voting him out, but it was a tough spot. Story-wise, it just felt so wrong and premature when Joshua was voted out on Haftorang2, so I'm glad he got a chance to make a deeper run in the game. I still see him as one of the most relevant Endure players in this "era".
TSL - I obviously agree with the general narrative about her game: absolutely brilliant in the premerge, then fell apart after the rock draw didn't go her way. The only thing I really have to add is that the flaws that led to her downfall here are pretty easily fixable. Don't tell people on the other side to fuck off, become more of a shameless ass-kisser when you're in minority. I think that alone would've given TSL a chance to usurp Jess this season, since Jess absolutely could've used another big target like TSL around her. And it shouldn't be forgotten that TSL showed an INSANE amount of skill in the preseason. Even though this season is likely going to be a coronation of Jess as the undisputed G.O.A.T. of orgs, I still think TSL might be the one person with the upside to be even better than Jess - if she wants to.
Jake - Magnificent game as always, that likely ends up in a win if he doesn't get idoled out. On top of that, if Jess was indeed the preferred target of the minority idol play, then Jake actually had much more equity than Jess going into final 10. None of this should be overlooked or forgotten. But Jess, in my opinion, dunked on Jake quite a bit in this game. Jake should've been much more vengeful towards, or at least wary of, Jess after her flip in round one and then when she risked Jake's life in the game at the merge rock draw. Instead, he just kinda shrugged his shoulders and continued to let Jess get away with murder. Again, though, Jake was in a decent position to get the last laugh, but the above makes it a bit more difficult to feel like Jess "stole" this win from him.
Ukmar - His transition from crazy person to a Jake Bell-esque Boring But Successful ORG-er is definitely him growing as a player, but Möbius, aggressive Ukmar could've been useful this merge. He was one of the main people in the majority that needed to reshape the game to be more conducive for him, but instead he let Joshua die and that marked the beginning of the end. He still would've been in a much better spot if Jake hadn't been idoled out, but the fact that his game fell apart so much just because one person got idoled out speaks volumes. Ultimately, though, it was fun to see the first curator of the Endure wiki, and someone with so much passion for the series, be on tribe after tribe stacked with all-stars, yet not seem out of place.
Daigger - There was a lot of Daigger negativity, and in some sense rightfully so, but there's also some overlooked positives. The prevailing take that he was playing a poor game in the premerge, one that I shared, ended up being pretty straightforwardly wrong. It was a long pre-merge with eleventeen swaps, so there was more of a premium on surviving at any cost. We also thought that he was always going to go before Hannah, but that also did not end up being the case - Daigger was even aware of the heat on them as it came up and was able to help shift the momentum towards Hannah instead of him. Yes he would've gone if Satevis4 had gone to one more tribal, but it's easy to forget that he did survive a tribal on that tribe after the Hannah vote; he deserves a lot of credit by default for Naomi being the next vote after Hannah. There was obvious room for improvement, but overall, Daigger maneuvered through this game in a much more intelligent way than he got credit for.
Scully - Yes he was bad at managing information, but I feel like I harped on that too much on that one roundtable. Overall, Scully showed a ton of skill as a gameplayer - particularly in the social department, where he showed time after time that he was capable of having amazing calls with people and making them want to include him in their plans. And as a character, he soared above almost everyone on this all-star cast - whether it was his vulnerability, passion, anger, or empathy, we were blessed by his presence this season.
Ricky - He's similar to the way I described Jenn above in that his bluntness and honesty are the foundations of a really underrated social game (although their particular brands of honesty are very different lol). And his raw game skill is exceptional - getting the vote pushed onto Sean instead of him on Venant after the Butler vote was a particular highlight. His game persona is so wild that it's somehow always jarring to see how lucid and intelligent his thoughts are in confessional. The contrast he creates between his perceived intelligence and his actual intelligence is just a lethal asset in these games. A cutthroat, determined-to-win Ricky would be an absolute animal. But that's not quite what we got in E11. As wicked and respectable of a game as Ricky played in E11, it's disheartening how much he let himself fade into Jess's shadow. Ricky's decision to pass his idol to Jess for her to play it on Ricky instead almost summarizes Ricky's entire merge gameplay. He didn't want to tarnish his relationships in a game where doing so is absolutely vital. Maybe he's just Bailey with a decade more of game sense? But something about that doesn't seem fair since, despite the few flaws that will likely lead to his loss tonight, Ricky still proved himself to be one of the most special players and characters in all of ORGs with his performance this season.
Casey - Other than a few nitpicks about how she handled the Butler vote, I was high on Casey from the beginning. She literally always managed to be the swing vote, and was the epitome of pragmatic maneuvering through the premerge. No take aged worse than the Casey-is-playing-bad take. At the merge, she correctly flips after the Charity vote and manages to burrow her way out of the bottom of that dynamic. Like with Ricky, I don't necessarily fault her for gravitating to Jess's side of the majority, but both of them needed to get a bit more independence from her in the endgame. We fault Anthony for not voting Jess at 7, but honestly, Ricky and Casey were in very poor positions if they needed to keep Jess that round. The Ukmar vote, but perhaps one or two votes beforehand, marked a point of no return where they probably needed to keep Jess around until 5, which is playing with fire (a partial quote from Sean that I hope is the finale ep title). But Casey is less at fault than Ricky for this, because her footing in the majority alliance was always going to be more precarious. As great as Ricky played this entire game, I think Casey played a slightly better premerge and postmerge, and I think she deserves to be runner-up tonight.
Jess - I mean, what else is there to say? I co-sign all the positives about Jess, particularly in the Finale thread in the Discord VL, which has basically become a Sunday Jessus Christ worship service. There's so many great Jess stats and trivia here, but two in particular come to mind: (a) she'll have a >18 SurvAv for the season if she wins unan tonight, which would be better than any Survivor player ever; and (b) even if Dru came back and won a regular season of Endure, Jess would still deserve #1 in the overall cast rankings. Nitpicks can be found: the performative value of her voting decisions at the Bryce and Charity tribals don't correspond to their merit as game moves, which were neutral-to-slightly-bad (Charity leaving benefitted her a lot, but a 50% chance of losing Jake or Ukmar at that point is much worse than just pushing for a unan Scully vote, which Kate should've been willing to go along with after Jess idoled her, and Sean should've preferred to a Sam vote considering their history.) But the nitpicks are so minor compared to the nitpicks you can make about literally every other player in the game. At the end of the day, Jess did not make a single decent-sized error, and proved herself to be exceptional socially, strategically, and in competitions. The latter gets discredited often in Survivor, but at least in ORGs, I really think it should be valued more since it generally means you demonstrated mental superiority over your competitors. This entire game is the mic drop of all mic drops, and it's exhausting to even think about what it would take for someone to surpass the legacy that Jessaca is leaving in these games.
Post Edited by Devon Sampson @ 25th Apr 2021 3:35:51 PM
